The future is a pattern we don’t yet recognize. The only way to discover it is through iteration, by rapidly experimenting with a set of hypotheses and prototypes until you’re ultimately able to discern what works best. Breakthroughs — be they business models, product concepts or user experiences — don’t land in one fail swoop; rather, they materialize through fits and starts, cobbled together over time into seamless and scalable platforms that customers can’t live/work/play without.

This is precisely what the seismic shift in the venture capital industry is all about. While alternative energy systems and bio-technology plants demand hundreds of millions of dollars in investment, there are thousands of “lean startups” — mobile apps, social nets, location services — that can get off the ground with “pocket change”. Driven by supremely talented hackers (software engineers) that code deep into the night, founding teams are able to push out a proof-of-concept over the weekend. When your starting 5 can get to an MVP (minimally viable product) by Monday, this definitely means that the equation for value creation has changed.

While the blogosphere continues to debate whether traditional VC is dead (see McClure, Wilson and Dixon) the more vital, pressing question is, “how will this shift find its way into the Fortune 500?” Imagine the impact that corporations like GE, 3M and Intel would have if their Product Development Groups operated more like startups?

One early and not surprising answer to this question can be found in the race to dominance in smart-phone platforms. A couple years back, the Financial Times had an instructive article about the “winner take all” phenomenon in technology. The most illuminating factoid in the piece was the staggering difference in the percentage of R&D spent by Nokia vs Apple; as a percentage of revenue, Nokia spent four times (4x) as much on R&D as Apple did last year.

Not only does this speak to a more efficient use of capital, it also highlights a dramatically more imaginative and effective approach to leading innovation. Apple’s culture is built upon a design ethos that champions experimentation, prototyping and simplification; while, unfortunately, Nokia’s is not.

Over the next decade, expect to see the recent advances in venture funding — start-up schools, early-stage incubators, seed funds, iterative development and incremental investment — integrated into modern management orthodoxy. Leadership philosophies, organizational structures, capital budgeting systems and innovation processes will all topple and tilt to enable the quick-and-nimble.

Speed will change the game — and the future — forever.

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